Predicting School Absence Rates using Machine Learning

Predictive data science helps us spot risks early and take action before problems grow. For example, we’ve been exploring the use of council data to build two models. Model 1 forecasts secondary school absence rates for primary-aged pupils; Model 2 forecasts next academic year absence rates for primary and secondary aged pupils . Developed with support from partners at Newcastle University and the council’s IT team, this tool uses a machine learning algorithm to highlight key risk factors and predict individual absence. The tool is intended to assist, not automate, decision-making, recognising the essential role of human understanding in complex situations. Before any operational use, it will be carefully piloted and evaluated with stakeholders to ensure it is safe, effective, and ethically sound.